It’s no new news that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has not actually preferred strict lockdown as the most counterproductive measure against coronavirus. On Monday he said the government expects coronavirus cases in the country to peak by end of July or early August. The premier said it is a fact that the virus will spread and the “the trend our experts have observed is that it spreads, then peaks after a few weeks and then the curve will flatten”.
While insisting that lockdown is not a solution to fight the virus, the premier said that the country can manage the pandemic if we observe the SOPs in place and take precautions.
Lockdown may not be a solution for the country in the eyes of the current government, but studies conducted worldwide reveal the success of imposing a lockdown. In a recent article published by The Guardian, it was revealed that lockdowns reduced infections by 81%. Lockdowns had a dramatic impact on the spread of coronavirus in Europe with strict controls on people’s movements preventing an estimated 3.1m deaths by the beginning of May, with 470,000 deaths averted in the UK alone, researchers say.
Outbreak modellers at Imperial College London said that lockdown slashed the average number of people that contagious individuals infected by 81% and lowered the reproduction number, R, of the epidemic below 1 in all countries they observed. When R is less than 1 the epidemic is in decline because on average, each infected person transmits the infection to less than one other. As countries ease out of their lockdown, scientists are watching R closely: if it rises and remains above 1, the epidemic will grow exponentially.