According to a research-based report published in DAWN, during a pandemic at any given time in any part of the world, the actual affected cases in a population are around 8-10 times more than the lab-confirmed cases.
The report predicted that considering the given circumstances, government measures, and overall attitude of people towards the deadly coronavirus, Pakistan may have 65,280 infected cases by May 2 and over 20 million (2 crore) by June 1.
Analysts Osama Rizvi and Ahsan Zahid using a mathematical model also predicted that there would be around 80,000 actual coronavirus cases in Pakistan by mid-April. They projected a massive shortage of beds in all the provinces of Pakistan as the number of infected patients would continue to rise exponentially. The total number (132,227) of available hospital beds in Pakistan would not be enough to facilitate the patients as another fatal disease – dengue will be back in the country in May-June.
Even in the developed world, analysts using various math models have predicted alarming numbers regarding the affected cases of the global pandemic. Medical journalist Dr Specht is of the view that two to six billion people around the world will be afflicted with Covid-19.
If mass testing and severe containment measures, including social distancing, are not undertaken now, Pakistan will witness a massive healthcare failure before the end of summer, since the country has definitely not enough hospital beds, facemasks, mechanical ventilators, and healthcare workers prepared for such a massive healthcare burden.