The ministry in an inter-ministerial meeting on Thursday discussed the preliminary estimates, which are based on information received from various government entities and initial research conducted by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
The assessment is based on limited, moderate and complete lockdown. The country seems to have already passed the limited level and is at the moderate phase in terms of restrictions on movement and is inching towards complete restrictions. The ministry has assessed losses at Rs1.2 trillion in limited lockdown scenario, Rs1.96 trillion in moderate and Rs2.5 trillion in case of complete restrictions on movement, which symbolises a curfew-like situation.
The initial official estimates are higher than the first independent assessment by two former government functionaries, Dr Hafiz Pasha and Shahid Kardar, who put the losses in the range of Rs891 billion to Rs1.6 trillion in case of less to severe shocks.